(WHTM) – Democrat John Fetterman holds a double digit lead over Republican Mehmet Oz in the latest Pennsylvania Senate race poll.
The survey conducted by Marist shows Fetterman leading 51% to 41% with 7% undecided among the 1,356 Pennsylvanians surveyed. Among those who say they definitely plan to vote, Fetterman’s lead narrows to seven points.
The 10 point lead for Fetterman comes amid several recent polls showing him with a lead ranging between 2-5%. Since late August three reputable polls showed him with 5%, one had 3%, and two had 2% over Oz.
In the Marist poll Fetterman also leads among independents by 22%, though 11% are undecided. More Republicans said they would support Fetterman (7%) compared to just 3% of Democrats who would support Oz.
“What is particularly unusual in these numbers, is that, with still six weeks to go, most voters have already picked sides,” says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Few Keystone voters are undecided or say they support a candidate but might vote differently.”
Fetterman led in all regions of the state except central Pennsylvania, most notably leading Philadelphia with 73%. The Lieutenant Governor also led among all those earning more and less than $50,000, those with and without a college degree, and white and non-white voters.
Oz led among white non-college graduates, rural voters, and had one of his largest support groups with white evangelical Christians at 68%.
Both Oz and Fetterman had 98% support from supporters who said they strongly or somewhat supported their candidate, however, Fetterman had a 12% lead among those who strongly support him.
Forty percent of Pennsylvanians said inflation is their top issue, followed by preserving democracy (29%), abortion (16%), immigration (7%), and health care (7%). More than half of Republicans cited inflation as their biggest issue (56%) and 40% Democrats said preserving democracy is atop their minds.
President Joe Biden’s approval rating in the poll was 42% with 52% disapproving and 6% unsure. More than 90% of Republicans disapproved and 82% of Democrats approved of the President’s job performance.
This survey of 1,356 Pennsylvania adults was conducted September 19th through September 22nd, 2022 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Pennsylvania were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. The sampling frames include RDD plus listed landline, cell phone sample based on billing address to account for inward and outward mobility within a state, and aggregated online research panels. Survey questions were available in English or Spanish. Phone and online samples were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. The samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2020 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, and race. Regional adjustments were made for turnout in similar elections. Results are statistically significant within ±3.3 percentage points. There are 1,242 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.5 percentage points. There are 1,043 registered voters who definitely plan to vote in November’s election. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.8 percentage points. Tables include results for subgroups to only display crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. It should be noted that although you may not see results listed for a certain group, it does not mean interviews were not completed with those individuals. It simply means the sample size is too small to report. The error margin was adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations