Forecast Discussion 5/14/20 PM: Showers & thunderstorms Friday

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AVERAGE HIGH FOR MAY 14TH: 69°

AVERAGE LOW FOR MAY 14TH: 42°

THURSDAY SUNRISE: 5:47 AM

THURSDAY SUNSET: 8:21 PM

Frontal system moving into the region for the end of the workweek. Warm front pushing into the region Thursday bringing late day showers. Showers staying light before sunset, then showers likely overnight and may be heavy at times. Isolated rumbles of thunder also possible. Warm front lifts north and temperatures hold steady in the 50s through the overnight. Patchy fog also with us.

Spotty light showers into early Friday morning. Isolated showers for late morning and early afternoon with breaks in cloud cover also possible. Any sunshine we see will help fuel thunderstorm development for the late day. Cold front moves through late day with showers and thunderstorms likely, moving from west to east across the area. Best timing for thunderstorms to move into Steuben County around 4-6 pm, then pushing east through the area through 9 pm. The Storm Prediction Center has us in a Slight Risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development (2 out of 5 with 5 being the highest), then portions of northeast Pa. in an Enhanced Risk (3 out of 5). Greatest threats being gusty winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. Total rainfall from Thursday night through Friday of 0.50-0.75″, but isolated higher amounts possible in any strong to severe thunderstorm that may develop. Keeping an eye on rainfall with concerns for Flash Flooding. Highs Friday near 80 degrees, feeling humid for the afternoon. Lingering showers into the overnight and lows in the low to mid 50s.

Isolated showers come to an end early Saturday with lingering clouds into the afternoon. Highs Saturday near 70 degrees. Models now trending toward a dry start to Sunday, but showers becoming likely by late day. Highs Sunday into the mid to upper 60s. Rain likely Sunday night into early next week. Watching for the potential for another round of heavy rainfall Sunday night into early next week.

FRIDAY: SHOWERS & T-STORMS. MAINLY CLOUDY & WINDY
HIGH: 80

FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS LINGER. CLOUDY
LOW: 51

SATURDAY: DRYING OUT EARLY. MOSTLY CLOUDY
HIGH: 69 LOW: 46

SUNDAY: CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY
HIGH:67 LOW: 54

MONDAY: CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY
HIGH: 66 LOW: 48

TUESDAY: CLOUDY. CHANCE SHOWERS
HIGH: 64 LOW: 43

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
HIGH: 69 LOW: 47

THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY
HIGH: 70 LOW: 50

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