(WHTM) — While the Republican governor’s race remains wide open, with a majority of voters still undecided, candidate Doug Mastriano does have an advantage over the other candidates, according to a new Franklin & Marshall College poll.
The poll, conducted between April 20 and May 1, interviewed 792 registered Pennsylvania voters. Of the 325 Republican voters interviewed, 20% said Mastriano would have their vote on May 17.
Behind Mastriano, Bill McSwain received 12% of the voters’ support, Lou Barletta came in with 11% and Dave White rounded out the top four with 8%. However, one-third, or 34%, of Republican voters said they remain undecided.
Plus, 53% of those who did choose a candidate say they are still deciding about their vote choice as it could change before the primary election day.
The majority of undecided could be due to the percentage of the Republican voters who felt they still don’t know enough about the individual candidates in order to have an opinion. White leads in this category with 59% saying they don’t know enough about him.
McSwain follows behind White with 54%. Mastriano had 51% of the voters and Barletta had 47% of the voters saying they don’t know enough about them.
While former President Donald Trump has not yet endorsed a candidate, Mastriano sits at an advantage among the other Republican candidates, based on the poll, with 33% of those who identify with the Trump faction of the party showing support saying they would vote for him.
McSwain and White, however, receive the most voters among those who consider themselves Traditional Republicans with 21% and 15% respectively.
The Republican voters may be divided on who they will vote for come May 17, but they are united on how they feel about current Democratic Governor Tom Wolf’s performance. Out of the 325 voters, 83% say they think Gov. Wolf has done a fair/poor job in office, with only 16% saying he did excellent/good and 2% unsure of their opinion.
To learn more about the Republican gubernatorial candidates whose names will appear on the primary general election ballot on May 17, click here.
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted April 20 – May 1, 2022. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall. The data included in this release represent the responses of 792 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 357 Democrats, 325 Republicans, and 110 independents.[i] The sample of voters was obtained from Marketing Systems Group. All sampled respondents were notified by mail about the survey. Interviews were completed over the phone and online depending on each respondent’s preference. Survey results were weighted (age, gender, education, geography, and party registration) using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics.
Estimates for age, geography, and party registration are based on active voters within the PA Department of State’s voter registration data. Gender and education is estimated using data from the November 2018 CPS Voter Registration Supplement. [ii]The sample error for this survey is +/- 4.4 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered. [iii] In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of non-sampling error. Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Non-response bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions.