(WHTM/TheHill) — Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) leads the Republican nominee, state Sen. Doug Mastriano, by three points, 49% to 46%, in the latest poll on the race for Pennsylvania governor.
In the AARP poll Shapiro leads among likely voters aged 50 and older by 1 point, 48% to 47%. That puts Shapiro’s lead within the margin of error.
Shapiro’s net favorability is stronger than Mastriano’s, but the difference is closer than in the Fetterman-Oz race. Shapiro is viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 34%. Mastriano is viewed favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 44%.
AARP’s poll also reveals a gap in gender with 55% of women supporting Shapiro and 41% supporting Mastriano. Among men, 51% support Mastriano while 43% support Shapiro.
Shapiro also holds a much higher percentage of support from African Americans over the age of 50 with 78%, while Mastriano only holds 17%.
The poll’s analysis points out that although the Democratic nominees are viewed more favorably than their Republican opponents, Democrats are facing a challenging political environment, as President Biden’s approval rating remains near 40%.
The analysis states Republicans hold a two-point lead on the generic congressional ballot.
Almost 85% of respondents said the country is heading on the wrong track, and more than 75% said the state is going in the wrong direction.
Only 30% said they felt the economy is working for them, as a plurality of respondents rated rising costs and inflation as the most important issue to them.
Enthusiasm is high among likely voters for both parties, with 84% of Democrats and 87% of Republicans saying they are “extremely motivated” to vote for governor and Congress in 2022.
The AARP poll surveyed 1,382 likely voters from June 12 to June 19.
It included a statewide representative sample of 500 likely voters, an oversample of 550 likely voters aged 50 and older, and an additional oversample of 328 Black likely voters aged 50 and older. The margin of errors were 4.4 points for the representative sample, 3.3 points for the total sample of 828 older voters and 4.7 points for the total sample of Black older voters.
AARP commissioned Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research to conduct this survey.