Forecast Discussion 04/20/21 AM: Quiet today before unsettled weather returns

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AVERAGE HIGH FOR APRIL 20th: 60°

AVERAGE LOW FOR APRIL 20th: 35°

TUESDAY SUNRISE: 6:19 AM

TUESDAY SUNSET: 7:54 PM

Noon Update: With the latest model trends the timing of the cold front passage on Wednesday has sped up slightly. An earlier passage of this front would lead to colder air being filtered into the region. Potential to see an earlier transition from a rain/snow mix over to snow showers. With how warm the ground is it will take some time for the snow to actually begin to accumulate, especially in the valleys. Snow will first accumulate on the grassy surfaces and then the roadways. Still expecting the highest snow totals to be into the higher elevations of Steuben County and portions of the Finger Lakes; they could see 1-3″. With the earlier change over the potential for snow, the remainder of the Twin Tiers could now see on the range of a trace to 2″. These totals are subject to change as with the track of this system.

Waking up to mainly quiet conditions this morning; besides for some spotty shower activity across northern Steuben county. Broken cloud cover today will lead to peeks of sunshine. Although the majority of the Twin Tiers will remain dry, isolated shower activity will be possible. Highs today will be slightly cooler than yesterday as highs reach into the low to mid-50s. Cloud cover thickens tonight and showers will begin to arrive. Lows will drop near the mid-30s, before slowly rising by the pre-dawn hours Wednesday.

Unsettled weather is returning Wednesday as a warm front pushes north through the region and then stalls over Central New York. The exact position of where this frontal system stalls will be key to the type of precipitation we see across the Twin Tiers due to a very tight temperature gradient. The area will start the day off with rain showers and a rain/snow mix; a slick commute will be possible Wednesday morning. As we head through the day, the warm front will transition to a cold front and slowly drop south by the afternoon. Highs will hover 40 degrees before gradually falling by the evening hours. The transition from a wintry mix to snow will begin; first at higher elevation spots and then in the valleys. Western portions of the viewing area, for example, Steuben County, have the greatest potential to see any type of snow accumulation. The further east you are the more of a rain event you will see; portions of Bradford county will even have the chance for isolated thunderstorm activity. Light snow showers will continue Wednesday night, lows in the low to mid-20s.

In terms of snow accumulation, it will be highly dependent on elevation. The further west and north you are the higher chance you have to see snow accumulation. Steuben County and the higher elevation spots in the Finger Lakes could potentially see 1-3″; while the valley areas in these locations will stay close to 1.5″. The remainder of the Twin Tiers will see between a trace to 1.5″, the higher end will be in the higher elevations. One thing to keep in mind, the ground is warm which will limit the amount of snow accumulation; the best chance will be on the grassy surfaces.

Lingering lake effect showers will be possible on Thursday thanks to a strong northwest wind that will be sustained at 10-20 mph. Although an area of high pressure will lead to dry conditions for the end of the workweek, we will continue to deal with gusty winds. Highs on Friday will be in the mid to upper 50s. At this vantage point, the first half of the weekend looks mainly dry before some spotty showers arrive by Saturday evening. A better chance for rainfall will come on Sunday as a weather system moves through the region.

TUESDAY: BREEZY, ISOLATED SHOWERS, BROKEN CLOUDS
HIGH: 54

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY, LIGHT SHOWERS ARRIVE
LOW: 34

WEDNESDAY: TURNING WINDY, RAIN/SNOW MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS
HIGH: 40 LOW: 24

THURSDAY: WINDY, LINGERING SHOWERS, MOSTLY CLOUDY
HIGH: 43 LOW: 32

FRIDAY: WINDY, MIX SUN AND CLOUDS
HIGH: 58 LOW: 36

SATURDAY: CLOUDS INCREASE, LATE DAY SHOWER POSSIBLE
HIGH: 64 LOW: 42

SUNDAY: WINDY, CHANCE SHOWERS
HIGH: 56 LOW: 35

MONDAY: BREEZY, MAINLY DRY SOME SUNSHINE
HIGH: 58 LOW: 35

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