Forecast Discussion 05/25/21 AM: Scattered afternoon showers and storms

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AVERAGE HIGH FOR MAY 25th: 72°

AVERAGE LOW FOR MAY 25th: 46°

TUESDAY SUNRISE: 5:38 AM

TUESDAY SUNSET: 8:31 PM

Noon Weather Update: We are continuing to see mostly to partly sunny skies at the time of this update. This sunshine will lead to destabilization in the atmosphere which will aid the development of thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorms look to develop mid to late afternoon and continue into this evening. Still only expecting to see isolated strong to severe storms develop. A better chance for scattered strong to severe storms will come Wednesday afternoon and evening. The latest-model updates show the development of thunderstorm activity to arrive closer to 3 pm and continue into the evening. Nonetheless, if you have outdoor plans today or tomorrow make sure you are weather aware.

It will be a calm and comfortable start to the day across the Twin Tiers. Breaks in clouds early today will allow for some sunshine, the amount of sun we see will help fuel thunderstorms for the afternoon. A warm front moving through the region today will increase the temperatures and humidity. Highs today will reach into the low 80s and we will turn muggy by the afternoon. As this front moves through the region, we will see showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon into the evening. The Storm Prediction Center now has the majority of the Twin Tiers in a Marginal Risk, level 1 out of 5, for the development of isolated strong storms today. The main concerns from any strong storm that does develop will be strong winds and small hail. Any lingering showers or storms will taper off tonight with the loss of daytime heating. Lows will be in the low 60s.

Heading into Wednesday, we will start off with some sunshine similar to today. This is important because the amount of sunshine we see will help destabilize the atmosphere leading to the development of thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center currently has the Twin Tiers in a Slight Risk, level 2 out of 5, for the development of strong to severe storms. Models are picking up on a pre-frontal system moving through the region early Wednesday afternoon; this will lead to the first round of showers and storms developing. The cold front will move through the region by the evening hours bringing a second round of showers and storms into the area. The main concerns from any strong or severe storms will be damaging winds and large hail. One thing we will also be monitoring is the potential for pockets of heavy rain associated with these storms. Luckily, we have seen dry conditions lately which decreases the flash flooding threat. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80s. Rain showers will linger in the overnight hours. Lows will be in the low to mid-50s.

Behind the above-mentioned frontal passage, a high-pressure system will move into the region. This will lead to dry conditions and some sunshine for Thursday. Temperatures will also be right around average, with highs in the low 70s. The next best chance for steady light rain will be on Friday as a low-pressure system moves into the region. At this vantage point, light showers are looking to linger into the early portions of Saturday. The second half of the weekend looks to be dry and partly sunny. Temperatures Friday and Saturday will hover 60 degrees before we reach the upper 60s on Sunday.

TUESDAY: EARLY SUNSHINE, AFTERNOON SHOWERS, ISOLATED STORMS
HIGH: 81

TUESDAY NIGHT: LINGERING SHOWERS/STORM EARLY, BREAKS IN CLOUDS
LOW: 62

WEDNESDAY: EARLY SUNSHINE, SCATTERED SHOWERS & STORMS, STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
HIGH: 87 LOW: 54

THURSDAY: MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
HIGH: 72 LOW: 44

FRIDAY: WINDY, CHANCE LIGHT RAIN, ISOLATED STORM
HIGH: 59 LOW: 43

SATURDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, LINGERING SHOWERS
HIGH: 62 LOW: 42

SUNDAY: CLOUDS DECREASE
HIGH: 69 LOW: 46

MONDAY: FILTERED SUNSHINE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
HIGH: 75 LOW: 48

Mainly dry start to the workweek with the exception of a few sprinkles into Monday evening. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy through the overnight. Lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Chief Meteorologist Shelby Clark: Facebook I Twitter I Instagram

Meteorologist Jessica Camuto: Facebook I Twitter I Instagram

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