Forecast Discussion 06/18/21 AM: Clouds build through today

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AVERAGE HIGH FOR JUNE 18th: 79°

AVERAGE LOW FOR JUNE 18th: 54°

FRIDAY’S SUNRISE: 5:31 AM

FRIDAY’S SUNSET: 8:46 PM

Noon Weather Update: Bumped up high temperatures a few degrees. Seeing a bit more sunshine before the cloud cover moved in which allowed temperatures to rise quickly. The first batch of showers that pushed into Western New York is continuing to fizzle out. This will lead to the onset of shower activity to be pushed back until the evening commute and into tonight. Have a great Father’s Day Weekend!

High pressure that has been in control of the region the past few days will continue to move off to the east this morning. After a dry and mostly sunny start to the day, we will see clouds increase into the afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop late today and overnight. A warm front pushing northward through the region will lead to warm and moist air being ushered into the region. Winds will be breezy at times out of the southwest with sustained winds of 5-15 mph and gusts of 20+ mph possible. Highs today will near 80 degrees. Scattered rain showers will continue tonight and patchy fog will develop. Lows will be in the low to mid-60s.

Heading into the first half of Father’s Day weekend we will see the potential for active weather. Breaks in clouds the first half of Saturday will lead to some sunshine, which could help aid in the development of thunderstorms by late in the day. The Storm Prediction Center currently has the Twin Tiers in a Marginal Risk, level 1 out of 5, for the development of strong to severe storms. Timing for storm development looks to be mid-afternoon through the early evening. The main concern from any storm will be localized heavy rain and strong winds. The surge of warm and moist air thanks to the above-mentioned frontal passage will lead to humid conditions. By Father’s Day itself breaks in clouds will lead to sunshine. Thanks to lingering moisture, isolated showers and storms will be possible for the afternoon and evening. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be in the low to mid-80s.

Heading into the first half of next week, the warm and muggy conditions look to continue. We will be continuing to monitor a developing Tropical System in the Gulf of Mexico. The track of this system could lead to tropical moisture being ushered into the region. At this vantage point, showers and storms look to develop Monday afternoon and continue into Tuesday. A cold front passage Tuesday could lead to the development of strong storms. Temperatures go from the upper 80s Monday to the low 70s by midweek.

FRIDAY: BREEZY, CLOUDS BUILD, LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS
HIGH: 80

FRIDAY NIGHT: PATCHY VALLEY FOG, SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
LOW: 63

SATURDAY: BREEZY, BREAKS IN CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS, ISOLATED STORMS
HIGH: 83 LOW: 56

SUNDAY: MIX SUN & CLOUDS, ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
HIGH: 85 LOW: 61

MONDAY: WINDY, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM
HIGH: 88 LOW: 60

TUESDAY: WINDY, MOSTLY CLOUDY, CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS
HIGH: 72 LOW: 48

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
HIGH: 72 LOW: 48

THURSDAY: BREEZY, MOSTLY SUNNY
HIGH: 77 LOW: 51

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