Forecast Discussion 06/21/21 AM: Hot, humid, and stormy today

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AVERAGE HIGH FOR JUNE 21st: 80°

AVERAGE LOW FOR JUNE 21st: 55°

MONDAY’S SUNRISE: 5:31 AM

MONDAY’S SUNSET: 8:47 PM

**Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for portions of the Twin Tiers**

Noon Weather Update: The Twin Tiers have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk, level 3 out of 5, for the development of strong to severe storms. Main threats still look to be damaging straight line winds and large hail. Isolated tornadoes can’t be completely ruled out. Showers & storms will continue to develop to the west of the area and then move east. Best timing for strongest storms will be late afternoon into this evening.

Some of us being woken up early this morning to strong storms marching through the Twin Tiers. A second line of strong storms is now progressing eastward from Western New York. This line is expected to weaken as it moves east, though we will be monitoring this closely. Breaks in cloud cover this morning will lead to some sunshine which will help destabilize the atmosphere. Onset for shower and thunderstorm development will be between 1-4 pm, first forming in the west then moving east. Active weather will be scattered in coverage before an organized line is expected to develop. This will occur along and just out ahead of a cold front passing through the region. The Storm Prediction Center has the Twin Tiers in a Slight Risk, level 2 out of 5, for the development of strong to severe storms. The main concerns from these storms will be damaging winds, hail, and localized heavy rainfall. On top of the storm threat, it will also be hot and humid. Highs today will reach 90 with heat index values in the low to mid-90s. Showers will linger early tonight before slowly tapering off as high pressure builds in. Lows will be in the low to mid-50s.

The above-mentioned high pressure will lead to quiet conditions for the majority of this workweek. Winds shifting out of the northwest behind the frontal passage will lead to cooler air being ushered into the region. Any spotty shower activity early Tuesday morning will give way to decreasing clouds by the afternoon. Tuesday will be cool and comfortable with highs hovering in the mid-60s. Wednesday and Thursday will consist of plenty of sunshine along with warming temperatures. Cloud cover will begin to build back in on Friday and highs will be in the low 80s. The next best chance for showers and storms, at this vantage point, will be this upcoming weekend.

MONDAY: EARLY MORNING SUNSHINE, CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS, HOT & HUMID
HIGH: 91 HEAT INDEX: 92-96

MONDAY NIGHT: PATCHY VALLEY FOG, LINGERING SHOWERS, ISOLATED STORM
LOW: 54

TUESDAY: LINGERING AM SHOWERS, CLOUDS DECREASE
HIGH: 66 LOW: 44

WEDNESDAY: COMFORTABLE, MOSTLY SUNNY
HIGH: 74 LOW: 48

THURSDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY, MID/HIGH CLOUDS
HIGH: 80 LOW: 55

FRIDAY: WINDY, MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY, STRAY PM SHOWER
HIGH: 82 LOW: 62

SATURDAY: WINDY, CLOUDY, CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS
HIGH: 83 LOW: 63

SUNDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, SCATTERED SHOWERS, ISOLATED STORMS
HIGH: 80 LOW: 59

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