Forecast Discussion 06/28/21 AM: Hot, humid, & afternoon showers/storms

Forecast Discussion
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AVERAGE HIGH FOR JUNE 28th: 81°

AVERAGE LOW FOR JUNE 28th: 56°

MONDAY’S SUNRISE: 5:34 AM

MONDAY’S SUNSET: 8:48 PM

Heat Advisory in effect for the Southern Tier!

Noon Weather Update: The Heat Advisory has been expanded to include the entire Southern Tier. High temperatures are still expected to reach the low to mid-90s. Heat index values across the Advisory area will be in the mid to upper 90s; nearing 100° in the warmer valley areas. Light rain showers are beginning to develop in Western New York and are expected to progress their way eastward this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will have the potential to produce localized heavy rainfall. The remainder of the forecast remains on track.

Starting Monday morning off with warm and muggy conditions already! A high-pressure system off the coast will continue to usher in the warm and moist air into the region. Due to this, high temperatures today will reach into the low to mid-90s. Thanks to dew point values well into the 60s, nearing 70, we are expecting heat index values between 95-98°. We will start the day with partial sunshine and dry conditions before the afternoon’s weather is quick to return. A frontal boundary that is nearly stationary to the north of our area will slowly drop southward the next couple of days. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop after the midday hour today and continue into early this evening. Moisture will be abundant for storms and showers to tap into, leading to localized heavy rainfall. This is something we will be monitoring as some of these storms will be slow movers. All activity will taper off this evening leading to quiet conditions overnight. Staying warm with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The heat and humidity continue on Tuesday with highs expected into the low to mid-90s; heat index values could near 100°. Similar to Monday, we will see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms developing by lunchtime hour. The main concern will be the potential for localized heavy rainfall with any slow-moving storms that move through the area. A better chance for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms will come Wednesday. This is associated with a frontal system pushing south through the region. At this moment the Storm Prediction Center has the Twin Tiers in a Marginal Risk, level 1 out of 5, for the development of strong to severe storms. Something we will continue to monitor.

The unsettled weather will continue for the end of the week and into the Fourth of July weekend! Although temperatures will cool back near average we will continue to deal with the humidity factor. There will be the potential for showers and storms each day, with isolated strong storms possible.

MONDAY: PARTLY SUNNY, AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
HIGH: 92 HEAT INDEX: 94-98

MONDAY NIGHT: LINGERING SHOWER/STORM EARLY, BREAKS IN CLOUDS
LOW: 68

TUESDAY: HOT/HUMID, AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
HIGH: 93 LOW: 67

WEDNESDAY: BREEZY, CLOUDS THICKEN, SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
HIGH: 89 LOW: 66

THURSDAY: CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS
HIGH: 79 LOW: 62

FRIDAY: WINDY, CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS
HIGH: 76 LOW: 58

SATURDAY: SCATTERED SHOWERS, ISOLATED STORM
HIGH: 77 LOW: 57

SUNDAY: CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS
HIGH: 79 LOW: 59

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Meteorologist Jessica Camuto: Facebook I Twitter I Instagram

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Meteorologist Nick Guzzo: Facebook I Twitter I Instagram

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