Forecast Discussion 07/06/21 AM: Active weather, hot, & humid

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AVERAGE HIGH FOR JULY 6TH: 82°

AVERAGE LOW FOR JULY 6TH: 57°

TUESDAY’S SUNRISE: 5:38 AM

TUESDAY’S SUNSET: 8:46 PM

Noon Weather Update: Scattered showers and storms are continuing to fire up across portions of New York & Pennsylvania! These storms will continue to progress their way eastward this afternoon. We remain at a Slight Risk (Level 2, level 1 being the lowest) for strong to severe storms to develop. The main concerns from any storm will be strong winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall. Make sure you are weather aware today and have a way to receive watches and warnings.

Seeing a line of showers and storms moving eastward through the Finger Lakes this morning. A better chance for active weather is coming this afternoon and evening. Some breaks in the sunshine this morning will help destabilize the atmosphere leading to showers and storms firing up for the afternoon! The Storm Prediction Center has the majority of the area in a Slight Risk (Level 2, level 1 being the lowest) for strong to severe storms to develop. The combination of daytime heating, humidity, and instability will help fuel thunderstorm development as a disturbance passes through the region. The timing of development looks to be early and mid-afternoon through this evening. The main concerns today from any storms will be strong winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall. These storms will be fast-moving, though, which should help limit isolated flooding potential. It will be hot and humid with high temperatures nearing 90 degrees. Light rain showers will linger tonight and an isolated storm can’t be ruled out. Lows will near the mid-60s.

Active weather will continue through the end of the week! The Storm Prediction Center has the Twin Tiers in a Marginal Risk (Level 1, level 1 being the lowest) for strong to severe storms to develop. Showers and storms Wednesday will be fueled by heat, humidity, and some instability. The time period for development looks to be after the midday hour through the evening. The strongest storms will develop along and out ahead of a cold front passage; the main concerns being strong wind and localized heavy rain. Highs will once again near 90. Slightly cooler for Thursday and Friday as temperatures are forecasted to reach the low 80s. Thanks to multiple disturbances moving through the region, the potential for showers and storms will be possible each afternoon and evening.

Keeping a close eye on the track of Tropical Storm Elsa, as it could impact our region late this week into the weekend. If this system tracks further west, it could lead to some heavy rainfall and thunderstorms for portions of Thursday and Friday. At this vantage point, showers and thunderstorms are looking to be on and off throughout the weekend. Temperatures will be reasonable with highs in the low 80s.

TUESDAY: EARLY SUNSHINE, CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS, STRONG TO SEVERE POSSIBLE
HIGH: 90

TUESDAY NIGHT: LINGERING SHOWERS, ISOLATED STORMS
LOW: 65

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY, CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS
HIGH: 89 LOW: 63

THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS
HIGH: 81 LOW: 62

FRIDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
HIGH: 82 LOW: 59

SATURDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, SPOTTY SHOWER/STORM
HIGH: 81 LOW: 58

SUNDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, SPOTTY SHOWER
HIGH: 82 LOW: 61

Mostly clear conditions continue Monday evening and overnight. A weak disturbance grazes north of the area, which brings a slight chance for a shower late. Mild for overnight lows with temperatures only cooling into the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

Hot and humid conditions continue Tuesday. Mostly to partly sunny in the morning as a disturbance approaches the region. Early sunshine combined with hot and humid conditions helping to increase instability as a weak wave moves through during the afternoon and early evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms become likely, some of which may be strong to severe. The Storm Predication Center has most of the area under a Slight Risk (Level 2, level 1 being the lowest) for strong to severe thunderstorm development. Main concerns with any thunderstorm that develops being strong damaging winds, hail and potential for heavy rainfall. These storms will be fast moving, though, which should help limit isolated flooding potential. Highs Tuesday near 90 degrees and humid for the afternoon. Rain tapers around sunset with decreasing clouds. Lows in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

Cold front moving into the region Wednesday brings the chance for showers and thunderstorms through late day. Ahead of the cold front, hot and humid conditions again setting the stage for increasing instability. Again, potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development. Also, thunderstorms may be slow moving. With plenty of moisture over the region, any slow moving storms may drop heavy rainfall. keeping an eye on areas prone to poor drainage with localized flooding a possibility. Highs Wednesday into the mid to upper 80s and feeling humid for the day. Overnight lows into the 60s. Chance for showers and thunderstorms continues for both Thursday and Friday as active weather continues. Elsa’s track will also play a role in this, farther west meaning even more moisture into our area. Highs both days near 80 degrees, closer to what we are use to for this time of the year. On-and-off rain chances continue this weekend. Highs near 80 degrees.

TUESDAY: MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY. SHOWERS & T-STORMS
HIGH: 90 LOW: 65

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY. SHOWERS & T-STORMS
HIGH: 89 LOW: 64

THURSDAY: CLOUDY. SHOWERS & T-STORMS
HIGH: 78 LOW: 62

FRIDAY: CLOUDY. CHANCE SHOWERS & T-STORMS
HIGH: 80 LOW: 59

SATURDAY: CLOUDY. CHANCE SHOWERS & T-STORMS
HIGH: 81 LOW: 59

SUNDAY: CLOUDY. CHANCE SHOWERS & T-STORMS
HIGH: 81 LOW: 62

MONDAY: MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY. SHOWERS & T-STORMS
HIGH: 83 LOW: 58

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