Forecast Discussion 07/16/21 AM: Showers, storms, & heavy rain threat returns

Forecast Discussion
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AVERAGE HIGH FOR JULY 16TH: 82°

AVERAGE LOW FOR JULY 16TH: 58°

FRIDAY’S SUNRISE: 5:45 AM

FRIDAY’S SUNSET: 8:41 PM

**Flash Flood Watch issued for portions of the Twin Tiers**

Noon Weather Update: Light rain showers are beginning to fire up across the area, especially in the Northern Tier. Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop for the remainder of the day! The forecast is still on track for heavy rainfall heading into the first half of the weekend!

Mild start to your Friday morning across the Twin Tiers and temperatures today are forecasted to be into the low to mid-80s. After a mainly quiet start to the day, we will be watching as unsettled weather develops for the afternoon and evening. A cold front will push into the region then stall leading to the potential for unsettled weather across the area. The best chance for showers and storms today will be close to the New York/Pennsylvania border and south into the Northern Tier. Southern portions of both Tioga and Bradford counties are in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5, 1 being the lowest) for isolated strong to severe storms to develop. The main threats will be the potential for heavy rain and strong winds! Scattered rain showers and isolated storms will continue overnight. Lows will be near the mid-60s.

Heading into the first half of the weekend out attention will be on the potential for heavy rainfall as a system moves through the region. The Storm Prediction Center has the Twin Tiers in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5, 1 being the lowest) for isolated strong to severe storms to develop. On top of the storm threat, there will be the potential for flooding to occur in the Twin Tiers. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has the Twin Tiers in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5, 1 being the lowest) for excessive rainfall on Saturday. This means there is the potential for scattered flash flooding across the Twin Tiers; the most vulnerable areas will be urban areas, roads, & small streams. The threat of flooding is the main concern we will be keeping a close eye on as the ground is still highly saturated and streams/creeks continue to run high from heavy rainfall earlier this week. Average rainfall for the Twin Tiers, with the latest model updates, look to be between 1-2″; isolated amounts of 2.5 inches will be possible!

Showers and storms will be widespread Saturday as a nearly stationary boundary is situated over the area. On top of this frontal boundary, we will see a disturbance pass through the region during the afternoon and evening. Saturday morning showers will be scattered in coverage as the first round of moisture moves through. The threat for heaviest rain will come in the afternoon and evening; this is also the time period when showers and storms will be widespread! Make sure you are weather-aware on Saturday and have a way to receive watches and warnings if/when they are issued. Highs on Saturday will near 80 degrees.

Heading into the new work week, we will see the potential for spotty showers on Monday! The best chance for showers and storms, at this vantage point, will come on Tuesday and Thursday. Temperatures are forecasted to reach into the low to mid-80s.

FRIDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM
HIGH: 82

FRIDAY NIGHT: SCATTERED SHOWERS, ISOLATED STORM
LOW: 65

SATURDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS
HIGH: 80 LOW: 61

SUNDAY: MIX SUN & CLOUDS, STRAY SHOWER
HIGH: 79 LOW: 60

MONDAY: MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY, SPOTTY SHOWER
HIGH: 83 LOW: 62

TUESDAY: MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY, SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
HIGH: 85 LOW: 62

WEDNESDAY: MIX SUN & CLOUDS, SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS
HIGH: 80 LOW: 57

THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
HIGH: 80 LOW: 59

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