Forecast Discussion 10/15/20 AM: Dry start, showers arrive mid-afternoon

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AVERAGE HIGH FOR OCTOBER 15TH: 61°

AVERAGE LOW FOR OCTOBER 15TH: 37°

THURSDAY SUNRISE: 7:21 AM

THURSDAY SUNSET: 6:25 PM

Noon Update: Cloud cover is beginning to entire Western New York as the cold front continues to move closer to the region. Winds across the area have gusted between 30-35 mph as of this update; these strong winds will continue into the afternoon hours. Thanks to a bit more sunshine than what was expected along with the southwesterly breeze, have bumped up high temperatures by a couple of degrees. Still expecting to see well above average temperatures. Clouds will increase this afternoon and showers look to arrive by this evening. Rainfall looks to still be on the light side with accumulation amounts in the range of .10″-0.25″. The remainder of the forecast remains on track.

A mild start to the day across the Twin Tiers and we are starting it off-dry. Mainly dry conditions will continue through the first half of the day and we will be able to see some partial sunshine. Cloud cover will begin to increase as a cold front moves into the region; this will also be responsible for the gusty winds today. Sustained southwesterly winds will be in the range of 10-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph or higher possible. The combination of this wind direction and some sunshine for the first half of the day will help temperatures rise up towards the mid-70s. By late afternoon to this evening, we will begin to see light showers work into the Twin Tiers from west to east. Shower activity will continue overnight tonight and lows will be in the mid to upper 40s. Rainfall accumulation today and tonight will be on the light side.

The cold front will stall to the east of our area, keeping the majority of the moisture and precipitation east of the Twin Tiers. Scattered showers will still be possible for Friday but it will not be a washout and we will see mostly cloudy skies. Colder air will be ushered into the region behind this frontal passage will cause Friday’s highs to be in the low to mid-50s. Friday night lows will drop down into the low 30s. High pressure will begin to build for the upcoming weekend, this will lead to decreasing cloud cover. We will see seasonable temperatures and partial sunshine. Highs this weekend will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

As we head into the start of next week models not agreeing on the timing of the next weather maker. Right now, Monday looks to start off dry and we will see mostly cloudy skies. By Monday afternoon there looks to be the potential for isolated showers. The better chance for shower activity at this vantage point is looking to be on Tuesday and Wednesday. These are looking to be scattered showers and it won’t be a washout. Temperatures for the start of the week will be seasonable as highs will be in the low 60s.

THURSDAY: WINDY, CLOUDS INCREASE, LATE DAY ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE
HIGH: 77

THURSDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY, CHANCE LIGHT SHOWERS
LOW: 45

FRIDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, SCATTERED SHOWERS
HIGH: 53 LOW: 32

SATURDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY START, CLOUDS DECREASE BY THE MID-AFTERNOON
HIGH: 58 LOW: 34

SUNDAY: PARTLY SUNNY, STRAY EVENING SHOWER
HIGH: 62 LOW: 42

MONDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, ISOLATED SHOWERS
HIGH: 63 LOW: 44

TUESDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, SCATTERED SHOWERS
HIGH: 65 LOW: 45

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, SCATTERED SHOWERS
HIGH: 67 LOW: 43

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