Forecast Discussion 10/27/20 AM: Cloudy with scattered showers today

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AVERAGE HIGH FOR OCTOBER 27TH: 57°

AVERAGE LOW FOR OCTOBER 27TH: 34°

TUESDAY SUNRISE: 7:35 AM

TUESDAY SUNSET: 6:07 PM

Waking up this morning we are seeing cloudy skies along with spotty shower activity across the area. Most of the area will turn mainly dry for the first half of the day and we will have the potential to see breaks in cloud cover. A weak disturbance will move through the region late this afternoon. This will bring the chance for scattered showers to develop; the best timing late this afternoon through this evening. A light northerly breeze will help keep high temperatures just slightly below average today as highs will hover near 50 degrees. High pressure will begin to build in overnight and shower activity will taper off. Lows will be in the mid to upper 30s. Mainly dry for Wednesday with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s.

Our attention then turns to the unsettled weather that will impact the region for the end of the workweek. Cloud cover will increase Thursday as a low-pressure system moves northward towards our region. This system will be able to tap into tropical moisture from Zeta. This moisture will be ushered into the atmosphere leading to a rain event throughout Thursday. Rainfall rates could be moderate to heavy at times. This could lead to the potential for flooding in locations with poor drainage. High pressure to the north will try to push southward Thursday night into Friday. This will usher in colder air into the atmosphere bringing the potential for a wintry mix Thursday night and Friday morning. Lows Thursday night are expected to fall back into the low 30s. Rain/snow showers will still be possible on Friday before we begin to see clouds decrease late in the day.

Models currently in disagreement regarding how aggressive the system will become by the end of the week. The Euro is showing colder air being ushered into the atmosphere allowing for the transition of wintry mix to occur earlier and fuel this system. The GFS is the opposite, it shows this system breaking down leading to a lower chance of a wintry mix occurring. Nonetheless, still anticipating a rain event throughout the day on Thursday where isolated locations could see near an inch of rainfall. Wintry mix to even wet snow looking most likely to occur in higher elevations in the Southern Tier. To soon to discuss snow accumulation amounts due to model disagreement. This is something we will continue to monitor throughout the next 48 hours.

We will begin to see high pressure build into the region Friday night. Friday night temperatures are forecasted to drop into the upper teens to hovering 20 degrees. This is thanks to clearing skies along with the calm wind. Although it will be a bitterly cold start to Halloween, we will be able to enjoy some sunshine and temperatures will rise near 50 degrees. Cloud cover will increase by the end of the weekend and late day showers will be possible on Sunday. Shower chances continue for Monday.

TUESDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, SCATTERED SHOWERS
HIGH: 51

TUESDAY NIGHT: LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY, PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOW: 37

WEDNESDAY: MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS
HIGH: 57 LOW: 37

THURSDAY: RAIN LIKELY, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES
HIGH: 52 LOW: 31

FRIDAY: RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY, CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
HIGH: 42 LOW: 20

SATURDAY: COLD START, SOME SUNSHINE
HIGH: 49 LOW: 31

SUNDAY: CLOUDS INCREASE, AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE
HIGH: 55 LOW: 32

MONDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, CHANCE SHOWERS
HIGH: 50 LOW: 29

Connect with the 18 Storm Team.

Chief Meteorologist Shelby Clark: Facebook I Twitter

Meteorologist Jessica Camuto: Facebook I Twitter

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Meteorologist Grant Chungo: Facebook I Twitter

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