Forecast Discussion 10/29/20 AM: Steady rain transitions to a wintry mix tonight

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AVERAGE HIGH FOR OCTOBER 29TH: 56°

AVERAGE LOW FOR OCTOBER 29TH: 34°

THURSDAY SUNRISE: 7:38 AM

THURSDAY SUNSET: 6:04 PM

Noon Update: Steady rain occurring across the Twin Tiers will continue through the afternoon. Between the bands of moderate to heavy rain and patchy fog, visibility in some locations has dropped. Rainfall accumulation still looks to be in the range of 0.75-1.5″. Still not anticipating flooding to be a major concern today due to the drought conditions across the area. The main concern would be in poor drainage areas prone to flooding along with ponding on roadways. The forecast remains on track with colder air still forecasted to cause the transition to a wintry mix overnight. The transition will occur in the high terrain first then across the valley areas. A trace to 2″ of snowfall is possible, the highest amounts in the highest elevations. Most valley areas will see a wintry mix and maybe a dusting of snow. Still expecting a messing morning commute Friday.

Tropical moisture from the remnants of Zeta beginning to impact our region today. Steady light rainfall will continue to move into the Twin Tiers through the morning hours. Moderate to heavy bands of rainfall will move through this afternoon. The rain-cooled air will keep high temperatures towards the mid-40s. Along with the low-pressure system, a cold high-pressure air mass will push southward today. This will usher in bitterly cold air into the atmosphere. Thanks to this colder air, we will see the transition from rain to a wintry mix and snow showers tonight into Friday morning. Lows tonight are forecasted to fall back into the low 30s.

With the soaking rainfall that is expected throughout the day, expecting to see rainfall accumulations on the range of 0.5-1.5″, isolated higher amounts will be possible in locations that see a period of heavy rain. Due to the drought conditions, we are continuing to experience across the area flooding will not be a major concern. This being said poor drainage areas, that are prone to flooding, will need to be monitored. In terms of potential snowfall, it will all be elevation-dependent. Higher terrain will see the transition over to wintry mix and snow showers sooner than valley locations. Snowfall accumulation will range from a dusting in valley locations to close to 2″ in higher elevation areas. Regardless as we head into the early morning commute Friday it will be a messy one, be prepared to give yourself more time to get to where you need to be.

As the storm system continues to move off to our east Friday morning the area of high pressure that is bringing us the colder air will take control of the region. Lingering shower activity will begin to taper off during the morning hours Friday and cloud cover will begin to decrease late day. Clearing skies combined will calm winds Friday night will help temperatures to drop back towards the upper teen. Although a bitterly cold start to your Halloween, we will see plenty of sunshine that will help temperatures near 50 degrees. Mainly dry conditions continue for the majority of Sunday but cloud cover will increase. This will be thanks to a cold front passage Sunday night into Monday leading to the return of shower activity. Shower activity continues for early next week before drier weather looks to return by midweek.

THURSDAY: STEADY RAIN, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, WINTRY MIX LATE
HIGH: 46

THURSDAY NIGHT: WINTRY MIX, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LOW: 31

FRIDAY: WINDY, LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, CLOUDS DECREASE LATE DAY
HIGH: 41 LOW: 19

SATURDAY: COLD START MOSTLY SUNNY
HIGH: 47 LOW: 31

SUNDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, LATE DAY SHOWERS
HIGH: 54 LOW: 28

MONDAY: WINDY, MOSTLY CLOUDY, CHANCE SHOWERS
HIGH: 39 LOW: 26

TUESDAY: WINDY, MOSTLY CLOUDY, CHANCE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
HIGH: 46 LOW: 32

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
HIGH: 59 LOW: 36

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