Forecast Discussion 11/16/20 AM: Mainly dry today before snow showers return tonight

Forecast Discussion
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AVERAGE HIGH FOR NOVEMBER 16th: 49°

AVERAGE LOW FOR NOVEMBER 16th: 30°

MONDAY SUNRISE: 7:00 AM

MONDAY SUNSET: 4:45 PM

Noon Update: Continuing to see plenty of clouds across the area. This combined with the blustery winds has kept temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. Still anticipating some breaks in the clouds but highs are now looking to hover around the mid-40s. Potential for lake effects showers tonight as a west/northwest breeze moves cold air over the warm water of Lake Erie. Scattered snow showers will continue into Tuesday. Expecting to see little to no accumulation with the highest amounts at the higher terrain. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

We will once again be dealing with a blustery wind out of the west. Sustained winds will be from 10-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph or higher possible. This wind direction will move cold air over the warm water of Lake Erie causing the potential for lake effect showers. Scattered shower activity off of Lake Erie will be possible today but the majority of the area will remain on the dry side. We will also see mostly to partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s. Lake effect snow shower activity will increase overnight as lows fall back towards 30 degrees.

We will see the second shot of cold air on Tuesday causing our high temperatures to struggle to make it towards the low 40s. We will see the potential for lake effect showers off of Lake Erie thanks to the cold air moving over the warm waters. Light snow showers are expected for the first half of the day, as temperatures rise towards 40 degrees we will begin to see a rain/snow mix to light rain showers. Snow accumulation will be little to none across the area, especially in valley areas. Higher elevation spots, especially in Steuben county, could see a dusting to an inch of snow by early Wednesday morning. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper teens to low 20s.

An area of high pressure will build in Wednesday ushering drier air into the atmosphere bringing an end to lake effect shower activity. Showers taper off Wednesday and clouds will begin to gradually clear. The coldest day of the week will be Wednesday as highs only make it into the mid to upper 30s. After Wednesday we will see a warming trend as highs towards the weekend will be in the mid to upper 50s. We are looking to stay dry Thursday through Saturday. A weak disturbance will move through the region late Saturday evening into Sunday which will bring the potential for isolated showers.

MONDAY: BLUSTERY, MOSTLY CLOUDY, SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
HIGH: 46

MONDAY NIGHT: LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
LOW: 30

TUESDAY: SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
HIGH: 41 LOW: 22

WEDNESDAY: LINGERING SHOWERS AM, GRADUAL CLEARING
HIGH: 37 LOW: 20

THURSDAY: BREEZY, FILTERED SUNSHINE
HIGH: 50 LOW: 36

FRIDAY: BREEZY, FILTERED SUNSHINE
HIGH: 58 LOW: 38

SATURDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, ISOLATED SHOWER
HIGH: 55 LOW: 38

SUNDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, ISOLATED SHOWER
HIGH: 56 LOW: 40

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