Forecast Discussion 2/11/2020 PM: Above average until Thursday, turning very cold

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The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the following times and counties:

From 7 PM Wednesday, February 12th until 9 AM Thursday, February 13th:
Chemung County, Steuben County, and Tioga County (N.Y.)

Mixed precipitation expected with accumulations of 1-3 inches. Higher amounts possible in higher elevations. Expected a layer of ice over surfaces. Slippery road conditions are likely.

From 7 PM Wednesday, February 12th until 12 PM Thursday, February 13th:
Schuyler County and Tompkins County.

Snow Expected with patchy freezing rain. Snow accumulations in the 2-5 inch range with a light glaze of ice accumulation.

AVERAGE HIGH FOR FEBRUARY 12TH: 35°

AVERAGE LOW FOR FEBRUARY 12TH: 16°

WEDNESDAY SUNRISE: 7:09 AM

WEDNESDAY SUNSET: 5:35 PM

Continued above-average temperatures have been another addition to the fairly mild winter that the Twin Tiers is receiving. They will continue into this evening. During the early evening hours, a stray shower or flurry is possible. Going into tonight, those will clear out with low temperatures in the lower 20s.

Upper-level ridging will take a temporary place over the area tomorrow during the daytime hours. Staying above average for temperatures with highs in the very low 40s. Going into the afternoon clouds will start to increase bringing chances of snow showers into the PM hours. A Winter Weather Advisory goes in effect at 7 PM that evening. Snow accumulations from 1-3 inches for most of the area possible. 2-5 for Schuyler and Tompkins Counties. A light glazing of ice is also very possible providing very hazardous road conditions Thursday morning. Low temperatures will drop to right around freezing.

Thursday is when things get interesting. The cloud cover moving in Wednesday evening is part of the next system that will move through the area on Thursday. The temperature gradient will be very sharp as the front moves through. High temperatures on Thursday will push into the upper 30s, maybe the lower 40s if a warm front is present with the movement of this system. Showers will be likely throughout the day on Thursday. Going into the evening hours the temperature will drop almost 30 degrees to right around 10. With that temperature drop comes a changeover to winter precipitation and the freezing of any moisture on the ground overnight.

Mother Nature is not showing the love this Valentine’s Day (Friday) with high temperatures around 15 degrees, with very little visible chances of it going much higher. Mostly cloudy skies for Friday. That night, temperatures will drop about 20 degrees to around -4, this will be dependant on cloud cover and how quickly the daytime “heat” can escape into the atmosphere.

As a result of the very cold temperatures on Thursday night through Saturday morning, slick spots on roadways and sidewalks will be very possible at any place where moisture is present.

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY SUNNY. AFTERNOON INCREASING CLOUDS
HIGH: 40

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY. CHANCE SHOWERS
LOW: 32

THURSDAY: CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. STEEP TEMPERATURE DROP
HIGH: 38 LOW: 10

FRIDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY. STRAY FLURRY. VERY COLD
HIGH: 15 LOW: -4

SATURDAY: SOME SUNSHINE. PM CLOUDS INCREASE.
HIGH: 28 LOW: 20

SUNDAY: CLOUDY. CHANCE SHOWERS.
HIGH: 40 LOW: 28

MONDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HIGH: 41 LOW: 30

TUESDAY: CLOUDY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
HIGH: 42 LOW: 32

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