ELMIRA, N.Y. (WETM) – Today has a very similar forecast to yesterday, however a little warmer. Temperatures today will start pushing that 90 degree mark with a high around 88 degrees. The humidity will make it feel over 90 degrees because it is another hot and humid day. With that humidity, more unsettled weather this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms likely after 3 P.M. The Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms, again similar to yesterday. Yesterday, the SPC upgraded the area to a slight risk (2/5) in the early afternoon. Here is what we know:
1. Models are making it appear more organized than yesterday.
The models are organizing this system more than yesterday which can both help and hurt potential severe weather. It can make it harder for it to rotate, however more widespread rain could mean more widespread flash flooding.
2. Warmer temperatures creating more instability, 1000-1500 j/kg mixed layer CAPE at 3 P.M. with over 2000 j/kg at the surface. These values hold through 6 P.M.
Temperatures today will starting flirting with the 90s and the heat index today will definitely make it feel hotter than 88 degrees. The sunshine in the late morning and early afternoon is going to add to the instability going into 3 P.M.
3. Main threats are similar to yesterday, high wind and heavy downpours. However, the heavy rain could be more widespread.
Watkins Glen, according to our in-house model, is going to get the lion’s share of the rain with over 2.25 inches by 8:30 A.M. tomorrow. Many communities across the Southern Tier are expected to receive over an inch of rain before tomorrow morning. The Northern Tier is expected to be mostly spared from the active weather this afternoon, however they will accumulate some rain this evening.
As per usual, nothing certain with this system as it moved into our region. This is what I am seeing with the information available.
The 18 Storm Team will keep an eye on this system as we go into the afternoon.
Connect with the 18 Storm Team.